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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | CIN | 20.3 | 21.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | MIA | 14.7 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | HOU | 13.0 | 11.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | CAR | 21.9 | 24.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | CIN | 13.0 | 16.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TEN | 10.1 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | MIN | 14.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | CAR | 8.4 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Chargers D/ST | HOU | 6.4 | 9.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
Championship week streamers - maximize ceiling for Week 17 finals
Love QUESTIONABLE vs tough BAL (14th vs QB). Darnold faces CAR (18th vs QB), SEA 7.5-pt favorites. Safer floor if Love can't go.
XGB 26.7% boom, only 23.7% bust. LV allows 8.5 fppg to TEs (worst quartile). Engram trending up with recent 10+ games.
With DK Metcalf suspended, Shaheed should see increased targets in SEA's pass-first offense vs weak CAR secondary.
⚠️ Avoid: Jayden Daniels, Kyler Murray, J.K. Dobbins, Garrett Wilson
See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.
Championship Week 17 is a closer matchup than ESPN suggests. Kitty's Piggy Skins shows 114.6 projected, but Quinshon Judkins (0.0 in FLEX) will be replaced - likely by Hunter Henry TE (10.7) or similar FA, pushing them to ~125 points. Our 131 projection gives us a 6-point edge (58% win probability). Key advantages: Brissett vs CIN (27th vs QB) in 53.5-total shootout, JSN vs CAR as WR2 overall. Key concerns: Jordan Love's questionable status and Rashee Rice's IR. Every point matters in this championship.
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 20.3 | 21.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 14.7 | 15.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 13.0 | 11.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | WR | 14.2 | 15.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 21.9 | 24.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 10.1 | 10.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.0 | 16.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.4 | 10.0 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 6.4 | 9.0 |
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | 9.2 | 8.0 |
| Isiah Pacheco (bench) | RB | BE | 8.9 | 8.0 |
| Jayden Reed (bench) | WR | BE | 9.8 | 9.0 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 16.2 | 14.0 |
| Rams D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 12.3 | 10.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 9.9 | 9.0 |
| Rashee Rice (bench) | WR | IR | 13.7 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | QB | 21.1 | --- |
| De'Von Achane | RB | RB | 22.3 | --- |
| James Cook III | RB | RB | 17.2 | --- |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | WR | 12.5 | --- |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | WR | 13.2 | --- |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | TE | 10.8 | --- |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | RB/WR/TE | 0.0 | --- |
| Cairo Santos | K | K | 8.4 | --- |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 8.9 | --- |
| Buccaneers D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 5.9 | --- |
| Chase McLaughlin (bench) | K | BE | 8.0 | --- |
| Chimere Dike (bench) | WR | BE | 10.7 | --- |
| Darnell Mooney (bench) | WR | BE | 5.9 | --- |
| Deebo Samuel (bench) | WR | BE | 12.8 | --- |
| Trevor Lawrence (bench) | QB | BE | 18.7 | --- |
| Tyler Warren (bench) | TE | BE | 10.8 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 16.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 21% BOOM, 53% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 26.7% BOOM, 21.0% BUST (this week). QUESTIONABLE status + BAL defense (14th vs QB) + low 40.5 total = downside. ECR QB27 only 11.3 proj. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 14.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-24).
Context: ECR: 27
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 21.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical high). XGB: 13.5% BOOM (this week - conservative). MC dominates given elite CIN matchup (27th vs QB). 53.5 game total = shootout. QB8 in ECR with 21.0 FP proj. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 21.0 pts (within BOOM range 15-27).
Context: ECR: 8
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 13.9 | 16.0 | 20.6 | +6.7 |
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM, 59% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.9% BOOM, 48.2% BUST (this week - concerning). MIA 14th vs RB is moderate. 45.5 game total helps. ECR RB15 with 15.8 proj. Trust MC moderate mode over XGB bust signal. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within range 8-20).
Context: ECR: 15
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | ATL | 15.2 | 14.0 | 8.1 | -7.1 |
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM, 61% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 17.6% BOOM, 37.6% BUST (this week). NO 18th vs RB moderate. Low 38.5 total hurts. ECR RB38 at 8.1 proj. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within range 6-15).
Context: ECR: 38
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.0 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM, 43% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 9.0% BOOM, 57.7% BUST (this week - very high bust). HOU 8th vs RB tough. Low 39.5 total. ECR RB17 at 15.2 seems optimistic. Downgrade to lower moderate. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within range 8-18).
Context: ECR: 17
MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -4.2 |
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 9.2 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM, 21% MODERATE (historical - 61% BUST). XGB: 9.6% BOOM, 60.4% BUST (this week). Both signals say bust risk. LV 24th vs RB is favorable though. ECR RB45 at 6.9 proj. Mode: MODERATE (lower). Projection: 8.0 pts (within range 6-14).
Context: ECR: 45
MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 3% BOOM, 70% BUST (historical - bad profile). XGB: 11.9% BOOM, 59.9% BUST (this week). Chiefs may rest starters. DEN 9th vs RB. Low 36.5 total. ECR RB35 at 10.0 proj. Mode: MODERATE (at risk). Projection: 8.0 pts (within range 7-16).
Context: ECR: 35
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 21.9 | LLM 24.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM, 44% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 11.4% BOOM, 22.6% BUST (this week). XGB conservative but ECR WR2 with 26.9 proj is massive. CAR 12th vs WR decent. SEA 7.5-pt favorite = balanced script. Override XGB with expert consensus. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 24.0 pts (within BOOM range 21-36).
Context: ECR: 2
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 20.6 | 22.0 | 18.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM, 49% BUST (historical - volatile). XGB: 16.9% BOOM, 21.5% BUST (this week). Playing with Brissett in shootout helps. SEA 2nd vs WR is ELITE defense - major downgrade. ECR WR20 at 14.3 too high. Mode: MODERATE (lower). Projection: 10.0 pts (within range 8-20).
Context: ECR: 20
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 13.0 | LLM 16.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM (historical). XGB: 42.3% BOOM (this week - highest on roster!). Agreement on BOOM. CIN 27th vs QB means high passing volume. 53.5 game total = shootout. ECR WR32 seems too low. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 16.0 pts (within BOOM range 12-28).
Context: ECR: 32
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: Confirmed OUT on IR. Zero fantasy value Week 17.
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM, 44% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.6% BOOM, 42.6% BUST (this week - concerning). MIN 6th vs WR is tough. But DET offense elite, 44.5 total. ECR WR12 with 15.8 proj. Split difference - moderate with upside. Mode: MODERATE (upper). Projection: 15.0 pts (within range 10-20).
Context: ECR: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAR | 13.9 | 18.0 | 26.4 | +12.5 |
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 10% BOOM, 55% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.9% BOOM, 51.5% BUST (this week). BAL 22nd vs WR moderate. Low 40.5 total + Love questionable = downside. ECR WR37 at 10.1 proj. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within range 8-18).
Context: ECR: 37
MC (Historical): BUST: 35% | MODERATE: 55% | BOOM: 10%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 10.0 | - | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | CHI | 7.7 | - | 9.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | ARI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | CLE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | WSH | 11.3 | - | 0.0 | -11.3 |
| 1 | DET | 11.2 | - | 13.5 | +2.3 |
Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM, 45% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 18.8% BOOM, 56.0% BUST (this week - high bust). TEN 19th vs TE moderate. Low 38.5 game total limits ceiling. ECR TE6 with 12.9 proj. Trust ECR floor. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within range 6-14).
Context: ECR: 6
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CAR | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -2.7 |
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 16.2 | LLM 14.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%
Notes: MC: 21% BOOM, 53% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 26.7% BOOM, 21.0% BUST (this week). QUESTIONABLE status + BAL defense (14th vs QB) + low 40.5 total = downside. ECR QB27 only 11.3 proj. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 14.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-24).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 10.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 14% BOOM, 49% BUST (historical - volatile). XGB: 16.9% BOOM, 21.5% BUST (this week). Playing with Brissett in shootout helps. SEA 2nd vs WR is ELITE defense - major downgrade. ECR WR20 at 14.3 too high. Mode: MODERATE (lower). Projection: 10.0 pts (within range 8-20).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%
Notes: Confirmed OUT on IR. Zero fantasy value Week 17.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 9.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%
Notes: MC: 14% BOOM, 61% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 17.6% BOOM, 37.6% BUST (this week). NO 18th vs RB moderate. Low 38.5 total hurts. ECR RB38 at 8.1 proj. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within range 6-15).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 5.5 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 22% BOOM, 40% BUST (historical - risky). XGB: 10.6% BOOM, 59.7% BUST (this week). High 49.5 total = lots of points allowed. ATL offense can score. ECR DST7 at 7.2 proj. Mode: MODERATE (lower). Projection: 6.0 pts (within range 5-12).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DET | 4.2 | 4.0 | -1.0 | -5.2 |
| 14 | ARI | 6.9 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -0.9 |
| 13 | CAR | 7.5 | 10.0 | 1.0 | -6.5 |
| 12 | TB | 5.7 | - | 20.0 | +14.3 |
| 11 | SEA | 5.4 | - | 5.0 | -0.4 |
| 10 | SF | 6.4 | - | 5.0 | -1.4 |
| 9 | NO | 8.2 | - | 10.0 | +1.8 |
| 7 | JAX | 6.7 | - | 9.0 | +2.3 |
| 6 | BAL | 6.2 | - | 16.0 | +9.8 |
| 5 | SF | 7.0 | - | -2.0 | -9.0 |
| 4 | IND | 5.7 | - | 6.0 | +0.3 |
| 3 | PHI | 5.2 | - | 7.0 | +1.8 |
| 2 | TEN | 7.4 | - | 9.0 | +1.6 |
| 1 | HOU | 5.6 | - | 12.0 | +6.4 |
Projections: ESPN 9.2 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 18% BOOM, 21% MODERATE (historical - 61% BUST). XGB: 9.6% BOOM, 60.4% BUST (this week). Both signals say bust risk. LV 24th vs RB is favorable though. ECR RB45 at 6.9 proj. Mode: MODERATE (lower). Projection: 8.0 pts (within range 6-14).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 3% BOOM, 70% BUST (historical - bad profile). XGB: 11.9% BOOM, 59.9% BUST (this week). Chiefs may rest starters. DEN 9th vs RB. Low 36.5 total. ECR RB35 at 10.0 proj. Mode: MODERATE (at risk). Projection: 8.0 pts (within range 7-16).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 9.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 35% | MODERATE: 55% | BOOM: 10%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%
Notes: MC: 10% BOOM, 55% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.9% BOOM, 51.5% BUST (this week). BAL 22nd vs WR moderate. Low 40.5 total + Love questionable = downside. ECR WR37 at 10.1 proj. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within range 8-18).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 10.0 | - | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | CHI | 7.7 | - | 9.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | ARI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | CLE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | WSH | 11.3 | - | 0.0 | -11.3 |
| 1 | DET | 11.2 | - | 13.5 | +2.3 |
James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability
Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability
Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook III | RB | BUF | 17.2 | 16.2 | 57% | 31% | 12% | HIGH | |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 21.1 | 18.4 | 51% | 34% | 15% | HIGH | |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | MIA | 13.2 | 12.1 | 49% | 36% | 15% | HIGH | |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | DEN | 8.9 | 9.0 | 29% | 45% | 26% | MEDIUM | |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 22.3 | 18.5 | 13% | 64% | 23% | LOW | |
| Cairo Santos | K | CHI | 8.4 | 9.0 | 13% | 28% | 59% | LOW | |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 10.8 | 11.9 | 11% | 34% | 55% | LOW | |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 12.5 | 12.9 | 9% | 48% | 43% | LOW | |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 0.0 | 11.8 | 9% | 26% | 64% | LOW |
James Cook III: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)
Dak Prescott: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)
Jaylen Waddle: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)
Broncos D/ST: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)
De'Von Achane: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)
Cairo Santos: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)
Dallas Goedert: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 55%)
DeVonta Smith: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)
Quinshon Judkins: MC (BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 64%)
Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster
Championship week streamers - maximize ceiling for Week 17 finals
Love QUESTIONABLE vs tough BAL (14th vs QB). Darnold faces CAR (18th vs QB), SEA 7.5-pt favorites. Safer floor if Love can't go.
Week 17: N/A - this is championship week
XGB 26.7% boom, only 23.7% bust. LV allows 8.5 fppg to TEs (worst quartile). Engram trending up with recent 10+ games.
Week 17: N/A - championship week
With DK Metcalf suspended, Shaheed should see increased targets in SEA's pass-first offense vs weak CAR secondary.
Week 17: N/A - championship week
Bears D had 18.0 in Week 15. If Geno struggles on road in cold, turnovers likely. Rams facing high-powered ATL offense (49.5 total) is risky.
Week 17: N/A - championship week
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.2 | 47% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 0.0 | 34% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.0 | 27% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 7.7 | 24% | 38% | 0.0% | |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 8.5 | 20% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Matt Prater | K | 0.0 | 19% | 54% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 10.0 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Devin Neal | RB | 9.6 | 18% | 45% | 0.0% | |
| Harrison Mevis | K | 8.9 | 16% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | D/ST | 8.2 | 15% | 55% | 0.0% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 11.9 | 15% | 39% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.9 | 15% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| 49ers D/ST | D/ST | 8.0 | 14% | 51% | 0.0% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 10.3 | 14% | 53% | 0.0% | |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 15.4 | 13% | 44% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 34% | 30% | |
| Sam Darnold | 15.4 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:25% | 13% | 44% | |
| Kyler Murray | 16.8 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26% | 11% | 54% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.2 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% | 47% | 20% | |
| Devin Neal | 9.6 | BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% | 18% | 45% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.6 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% | 12% | 57% | |
| Emanuel Wilson | 7.7 | BUST:55%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:10% | 9% | 60% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.4 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 61% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 10.0 | BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% | 18% | 48% | |
| Quentin Johnston | 11.9 | BUST:29%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:18% | 15% | 39% | |
| Garrett Wilson | 14.9 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% | 15% | 48% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.3 | BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30% | 14% | 53% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.6 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9% | 9% | 56% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 8.0 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% | 27% | 24% | |
| Hunter Henry | 9.6 | BUST:51%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 62% | |
| Oronde Gadsden | 13.6 | BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50% | 0% | 0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Prater | 0.0 | 19% | 54% | |
| Harrison Mevis | 8.9 | 16% | 48% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.5 | 9% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders D/ST | 7.7 | 24% | 38% | |
| Bears D/ST | 8.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | 8.2 | 15% | 55% |
Win Probability
Floor: -27.1 pts | Median: +11.5 pts | Ceiling: +49.1 pts
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Quinshon Judkins | OUT | 12.3 | None available | - |
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 21.0 | 4.3-28.2 | ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 15.0 | 4.9-23.7 | ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 11.0 | 3.6-24.2 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 24.0 | 6.4-30.1 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 16.0 | 3.7-21.5 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 15.0 | 4.2-25.9 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 3.0-16.5 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 9.0 | 1.0-18.0 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 10.0 | 5.5-18.8 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 7% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 14.0 | 6.7-27.2 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.6-18.5 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 29% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 0.6-18.1 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 54% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 2.3-15.3 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 43% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 10.0 | 4.8-25.2 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Jayden Reed | WR | HIGH | 9.0 | 4.3-21.5 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.0 | 1.0-18.3 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 34% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 0.0 | 6.5-27.4 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 3% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | MED | 18.5 | 7.6-29.7 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MED | 18.5 | 10.9-31.3 | ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| James Cook III | RB | MED | 16.1 | 6.3-27.6 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% | |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | HIGH | 13.0 | 4.6-24.4 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 13% | |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | HIGH | 12.2 | 3.0-22.6 | ↑15+: 37% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | HIGH | 11.9 | 3.8-23.4 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 9.0 | 0.9-17.8 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Cairo Santos | K | HIGH | 9.0 | 3.8-16.1 | ↑15+: 13% | ↓5-: 22% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | HIGH | 18.8 | 8.3-31.3 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 2% | |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | HIGH | 11.8 | 3.6-22.8 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Chimere Dike | WR | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.0-20.4 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 32% | |
| Darnell Mooney | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 1.2-18.8 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 44% | |
| Tyler Warren | TE | HIGH | 10.1 | 3.2-18.3 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Buccaneers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 10.1 | 1.4-21.1 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| Chase McLaughlin | K | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.9-16.9 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 24% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 17% @ 24.3 | 59% @ 14.2 | 25% @ 5.9 | 13.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 27% @ 28.7 | 44% @ 18.4 | 29% @ 7.6 | 18.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 27% @ 20.0 | 43% @ 12.0 | 31% @ 5.2 | 12.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 25% @ 23.1 | 43% @ 12.1 | 32% @ 5.2 | 12.6 |
| Jason Myers | K | 25% @ 18.2 | 44% @ 11.8 | 31% @ 6.5 | 11.7 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 30% @ 14.9 | 45% @ 8.8 | 25% @ 3.8 | 9.4 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 29% @ 24.3 | 44% @ 15.6 | 28% @ 5.4 | 15.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 74% @ 21.4 | 2% @ 14.7 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 36% @ 14.9 | 42% @ 8.4 | 22% @ 2.8 | 9.5 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 6.4 | 9.0 | BOOM | 55.0% | 29.8% | 15.2% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 13.0 | 16.0 | BOOM | 42.3% | 35.3% | 22.4% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 16.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 26.7% | 52.3% | 21.0% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 13.7 | 0.0 | OUT | 24.9% | 45.3% | 29.8% |
| Jason Myers | K | 8.4 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 23.2% | 55.1% | 21.6% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 10.1 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 18.8% | 25.1% | 56.0% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 9.9 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 17.6% | 44.8% | 37.6% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 12.3 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 16.9% | 61.6% | 21.5% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 20.3 | 21.0 | BOOM | 13.5% | 50.0% | 36.4% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 14.7 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 12.9% | 38.9% | 48.2% |
| Jayden Reed | WR | 9.8 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 12.9% | 35.6% | 51.5% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 14.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 12.6% | 44.9% | 42.6% |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.9 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 11.9% | 28.2% | 59.9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 21.9 | 24.0 | BOOM | 11.4% | 66.0% | 22.6% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 5.5 | 6.0 | MODERATE | 10.6% | 29.7% | 59.7% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 9.2 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 9.6% | 30.1% | 60.4% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 13.0 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 9.0% | 33.3% | 57.7% |
Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-5 | 1861.3 | 1676.5 | +184.8 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 10-5 | 1771.1 | 1765.4 | +5.7 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 9-6 | 1822.8 | 1558.6 | +264.2 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W5 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8-7 | 1759.9 | 1725.0 | +35.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 100.0% |
| 5 | Wookie of the Year | 8-7 | 1705.9 | 1731.9 | -26.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Meat Pistols | 8-7 | 1515.0 | 1664.9 | -149.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-8 | 1730.5 | 1674.7 | +55.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 7-8 | 1664.9 | 1778.5 | -113.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Smooth Roosters | 7-8 | 1664.4 | 1646.9 | +17.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W3 | 0.0% |
| 10 | The Warsaw Pact | 6-9 | 1653.5 | 1752.0 | -98.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-9 | 1584.0 | 1689.6 | -105.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L5 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-11 | 1697.9 | 1767.4 | -69.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L4 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Valued Customers |
| 4th and pinches | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Moms rules |
| Meat Pistols | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | The Warsaw Pact |
| Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Auto DraftKings |
| Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
HIGH-SCORING GAMES (favorable for skill players): - ARI @ CIN: 53.5 total - ELITE for Brissett, MHJ (shootout expected) - LAR @ ATL: 49.5 total - Good for any Rams/Falcons pieces - TB @ MIA: 45.5 total - Good environment for Irving
LOW-SCORING GAMES (unfavorable/defensive): - KC @ DEN: 36.5 total - Bad for Pacheco, Rice (if active) - TEN @ NO: 38.5 total - Limits upside for Spears, Johnson - LAC @ HOU: 39.5 total - Moderate ceiling for Hampton
SMASH SPOTS (Elite matchups): 1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs CAR - WR2 overall in ECR, 26.9 FP proj. Panthers 12th vs WR. SEA 7.5-pt favorites = game script neutral. 2. Jacoby Brissett vs CIN - QB8 in ECR, 21.0 FP proj. Bengals 27th vs QB (allow 22.2 fppg). 53.5 game total = shootout. 3. Marvin Harrison Jr. vs CIN - Same shootout game. 53.5 total + weak secondary = boom potential despite low ESPN proj.
AVOID/DOWNGRADE: 1. Jordan Love vs BAL - QB27 in ECR, only 11.3 proj. Back injury concerns, tough Ravens secondary, low 40.5 total. 2. Jayden Reed vs BAL - Same bad game environment. WR37 ranking. 3. Omarion Hampton vs HOU - Texans 8th vs RB. Plus XGB has 57.7% bust probability.
CRITICAL: XGB only 37.3% accurate on mode prediction - XGB over-predicts BUST (only 23.3% of high-bust predictions correct) - XGB under-predicts BOOM (33.3% precision on boom calls) - Use XGB as ONE signal, not primary driver
Opponent: Kitty's Piggy Skins (114.6 projected)
Key opponent starters: - De'Von Achane (MIA RB): 22.3 proj - SAME GAME as Bucky Irving - Jaylen Waddle (MIA WR): 13.2 proj - SAME GAME as Bucky Irving - Dak Prescott (DAL QB): 21.1 proj - James Cook (BUF RB): 17.2 proj - DeVonta Smith (PHI WR): 12.5 proj
CORRELATION GAME: TB @ MIA - Our Bucky Irving vs their Achane + Waddle - High 45.5 total benefits all skill players - If MIA wins, Achane/Waddle boom = Irving may bust (game script) - Tampa should be competitive, keeping Irving involved
LOCKED-IN STARTERS: - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR vs CAR) - WR2 ECR - Jacoby Brissett (QB vs CIN) - Elite matchup, high total - Bucky Irving (RB vs MIA) - RB15, solid floor - Jason Myers (K vs CAR) - Implied 25 SEA points
SOLID STARTERS: - Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR vs CIN) - Boom potential in shootout - Juwan Johnson (TE vs TEN) - TE6, safe floor - Jameson Williams (WR vs MIN) - Tough matchup but explosive
FLEX CONSIDERATION: - Omarion Hampton (RB vs HOU) - Tough matchup, high bust risk - Tyjae Spears (RB vs NO) - Moderate outlook
AVOID/BENCH: - Jordan Love (QB vs BAL) - Injury + tough matchup - Jayden Reed (WR vs BAL) - Bad game environment - Devin Singletary (RB vs LV) - Limited upside - Isiah Pacheco (RB vs DEN) - Chiefs may rest starters
No waiver recommendations this week.
No major injury concerns.
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 21.9 | 24.0 | 0.0 | -24.0 |
| Opponent | RB | De'Von Achane | 22.3 | - | 0.0 | -22.3 |
| Opponent | QB | Dak Prescott | 21.1 | - | 0.0 | -21.1 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 20.3 | 21.0 | 0.0 | -21.0 |
| Opponent | RB | James Cook III | 17.2 | - | 0.0 | -17.2 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 13.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 14.7 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 14.2 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 16.2 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Jaylen Waddle | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| Opponent | WR | DeVonta Smith | 12.5 | - | 0.0 | -12.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Dallas Goedert | 10.8 | - | 0.0 | -10.8 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 12.3 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.4 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 10.1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 9.9 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 6.4 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 9.8 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Broncos D/ST | 8.9 | - | 0.0 | -8.9 |
| Opponent | K | Cairo Santos | 8.4 | - | 0.0 | -8.4 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 9.2 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 8.9 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 5.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 13.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Quinshon Judkins | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | K | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 0.0 | - | 16.0 | +16.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 0.0 | - | 13.5 | +13.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.7 | 10.0 | 21.5 | +11.5 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.4 | 15.0 | 3.8 | -11.2 |
| Free Agent | K | Eddy Pineiro | 0.0 | - | 11.0 | +11.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 18.8 | 21.0 | 10.6 | -10.4 |
| Opponent | TE | Trey McBride | 16.8 | - | 6.7 | -10.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 15.9 | 22.0 | 12.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 14.2 | 12.0 | 2.4 | -9.6 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 4.2 | 12.0 | 4.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.1 | 9.0 | 16.9 | +7.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.1 | 6.0 | 13.5 | +7.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 14.0 | 7.1 | -6.9 |
| Opponent | RB | Rico Dowdle | 15.2 | - | 8.3 | -6.9 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.1 | 13.0 | 19.3 | +6.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.1 | -5.9 |
| Opponent | WR | DK Metcalf | 13.5 | - | 8.2 | -5.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.8 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Patriots D/ST | 0.0 | - | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Michael Carter | 11.0 | - | 6.5 | -4.5 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Baker Mayfield | 16.6 | - | 12.7 | -3.9 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Jaguars D/ST | 5.6 | - | 2.0 | -3.6 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.2 | 13.0 | 16.5 | +3.5 |
| Opponent | K | Harrison Butker | 8.0 | - | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 7.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 | +1.6 |
| Opponent | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.8 | - | 22.8 | -1.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chiefs D/ST | 0.0 | - | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Michael Wilson | 13.4 | - | 13.2 | -0.2 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 19.9 | 23.6 | 23.6 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.